Halloween candy costs spike as cocoa prices stay high

Grocery shoppers in Orange County and across the country face steeper prices for Halloween treats this year. Federal data released recently indicates that the cost of candy and gum has climbed 7.7% over the past twelve months. Over the last two years, prices have risen by more than 18%, a rate that outpaces average food inflation during the same period.

The primary driver of this increase is the cost of chocolate. Drought and excessive rainfall in West Africa reduced cocoa harvests in recent seasons, pushing global prices higher. David Branch, sector manager at the Wells Fargo Agri-Food Institute, noted that global cocoa production is now rebounding. However, this recovery offers little immediate relief to consumers buying candy for this weekend's trick-or-treaters. Branch explained that the chocolate currently on store shelves was produced using cocoa purchased in 2025, when prices were already elevated.

Despite the price hikes, the National Retail Federation predicts that consumers will spend a record $13.5 billion on Halloween this year. This figure represents a 3% annual increase. Per capita spending is expected to reach $115, which is 55 cents higher than last year's total.

Manufacturers face additional pressures beyond raw cocoa costs. Branch described consumer chocolate prices as sticky, meaning they remain high even when commodity prices dip due to production lag times. Producers are also contending with rising sugar costs, higher fuel prices linked to the war in Iran, and increased import costs from U.S. tariffs. Enna Grazier, owner of Enna Chocolate in New Hampshire, reported a 50% tariff on some holiday packaging and ingredients sourced from Canada. Grazier said the cost changes have forced her to alter packaging plans and disrupt long-term planning for the season.

In response to higher costs, some brands are shifting product lines. Companies are introducing more gummy and sour candies alongside non-chocolate options, such as KitKat's marshmallow-flavored Witch's Brew and Reese's White Ghosts. These products use less expensive ingredients to offset the price of cocoa.

Consumer behavior reflects the rising costs. Data from market research firm Circana shows that chocolate candy sales have increased for several consecutive years. However, shoppers are purchasing smaller quantities over the same period. This trend indicates that consumers are paying more for chocolate while taking home less product per transaction.