640,000 Young Israelis Face Decision on 12 Knesset Seats

Israelis head to the polls on Tuesday, October 27, in a general election where the choices of young adults will carry disproportionate weight. The Israel Democracy Institute estimates that 640,000 citizens aged 18 to 22 are eligible to vote. This group constitutes nearly 10% of the total electorate. Analysts suggest their ballots could decide as many as 12 seats in the 120-member Knesset.

Yael Chernyvsky, an 18-year-old from Ramat Hasharon, told the Jewish Telegraphic Agency this month that she is voting to change the country's future. She spoke before an event in Tel Aviv attended by more than 1,000 first-time voters. Many attendees were in pre-military programs. Chernyvsky, who is in an army preparation program in the Negev, blames the government of Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu for national issues. She has not chosen a party but said she will likely support the Democrats, led by Yair Golan, or Yashar, led by Gadi Eisenkot. Both parties are part of the opposition change bloc, which seeks to remove Netanyahu. He has held the premiership since 2009, excluding a brief period in 2021 and 2022.

Tammy Hoffman, head of the education policy program at the IDI, said the institute co-sponsored the Tel Aviv event with the Yigal Allon Center. Hoffman noted that Israel has a high birth rate and a young population. She stated that if turnout is high, as IDI research suggests, first-time voters will make a difference in the final count.

Survey data indicates strong intent to participate. In May, the IDI surveyed prospective first-time Jewish and Arab voters. Between 80% and 95% across all groups said they would definitely or probably vote. Secular Jewish youth showed the highest certainty, while 87% of Arab respondents said they intend to vote. A separate poll for Ynet and Yedioth Ahronoth found that 67% of young respondents were certain they would vote, and 19% thought they would. These figures stand in contrast to the 47% youth turnout recorded in the 2024 United States presidential election, according to the Center for Information and Research on Civic Learning and Engagement.

National security and the cost of living rank as the top concerns for both Jewish and Arab young voters. Hoffman said these priorities reflect the experiences of this cohort, which included junior high school during the pandemic, the judicial reform protests, and the events of October 7. She described the group as worried about their future.

Political leanings remain varied. Hoffman noted that Jewish Israeli voters have trended rightward over the past two decades, but military service may counteract this by raising questions about war goals. An N12 poll from September 23 found that 74% of young people described their views as right-wing or center-right, while 23% identified as left-wing or center-left. In that poll, 16% said they would vote for Eisenkot's Yashar party, and 14% for Netanyahu's Likud. Hoffman added that mock elections in high schools showed most students backing Yashar and Beyachad, the party led by former prime ministers Naftali Bennett and Yair Lapid. Some support exists for Likud, but little for Itamar Ben-Gvir's far-right party.

Individual voters display a range of preferences. Omer Gross, a Jerusalem resident in an army-prep program in the Golan, plans to vote for the Religious Zionist party led by Bezalel Smotrich and Moshe Feiglin. He disagrees with Smotrich's approach in Gaza but supports his West Bank policies. Gross said, "We need a strong, secure Israel." Tomer Shiloh, an 18-year-old from Herzeliyah, will vote for the change bloc. He wants the next government to require ultra-Orthodox men to serve in the IDF and to lower living costs.

Sgt. M, a 22-year-old reservist identified by initial due to IDF anonymity rules, prioritizes universal service. He will vote for the Democrats on economic grounds, citing the cost of tuition, books, food, and housing. Khalel Alaa Sabeh, an 18-year-old from Shef-Amra, wants an Arab party to close resource gaps and tackle crime in Arab communities. He is urging friends to vote and stated, "I won't leave the country. This is my land, this is my home."