No Israeli Leader Can Reach 61 Seats After Vote

Sixty-one seats. That is the number neither side of Israeli politics can reach after the latest election. The result creates a deadlock in the Knesset, the 120-seat parliament, leaving Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and his main challenger, Gadi Eisenkot, without a clear path to power.

Netanyahu’s Likud party won the most votes. However, his bloc of right-wing, far-right, and ultra-Orthodox parties does not control enough seats to form a government. The opposition bloc holds more seats than Netanyahu’s camp. Yet Eisenkot, a center-right former military chief of staff, cannot reach a majority without the support of predominantly Arab parties. His allies ruled out that partnership during the campaign.

The process to break the stalemate begins in the next few days. The Israeli president will consult with every elected party leader. Each party will recommend a candidate to form a coalition. The president is not required to pick the leader of the largest party. Instead, the president selects the candidate most likely to assemble a governing coalition.

That candidate gets 28 days to secure support from at least 61 lawmakers. The president may grant one extension of up to 14 days. If that effort fails, the president can offer the opportunity to another candidate. This process can take weeks or months. It can also end with no one forming a majority.

Based on the results, Eisenkot appears more likely to receive the most recommendations. He is a relative newcomer to politics. His bloc lacks a majority without the Arab-led parties, which represent 21% of the population. Eisenkot has said he cannot govern with them because of their positions on Hamas and the war in Gaza. Some Arab parties have refused to endorse the military goal of eliminating Hamas or condemn it as a terrorist organization.

Netanyahu faces a similar problem. His traditional coalition partners do not have enough seats to return him to power. One possible outcome is a unity government bringing both leaders together. Israeli and some U.S. media report that President Trump favors this. A unity government would likely include moderate center and right parties. It could help Israel work with the Trump administration on Gaza reconstruction and normalization with Saudi Arabia. However, Eisenkot has pledged not to serve in a government led by Netanyahu.

A second possibility is an Eisenkot government supported by Arab parties. Together, their blocs command more than 67 seats. This remains unlikely because Eisenkot and his allies have rejected it. Support from outside the coalition would still contradict campaign promises. A third possibility is another election. Israel’s president has urged leaders to avoid this. Netanyahu may believe a repeat election helps him. Arab turnout could decline, and liberal Israelis who traveled from overseas to vote might not return.

A fourth possibility involves defections. Netanyahu would need roughly eight lawmakers from outside his bloc. Eisenkot would need approximately 13 defectors if he excludes the Arab parties. This scenario appears highly unlikely. During the stalemate, the opposition can advance legislation. They are considering replacing the Knesset speaker. They also hope to pass legislation establishing a state commission of inquiry into the failures before the Oct. 7, 2023, attack. Eisenkot’s allies could also try to reverse legislation that critics say weakened judicial independence.