Likud Internal Polls Divide Party as Turnout Campaigns Target Tuesday Vote

Internal divisions within Likud have deepened as Israeli voters prepare to cast ballots on Tuesday. Party members remain split on their electoral prospects, with one faction confident in victory and another alarmed by aggressive outreach efforts from opponents. A Likud source described the uncertainty, noting that some members are very sure of themselves while others are less so.

The confidence of the optimistic faction rests largely on the forecasts of Shlomo Filber, who manages the party's internal polling. The source characterized the stakes for Filber bluntly: either he proves to be a king, or he goes home. There is no middle ground in his predictions.

Concern within the party centers on a wave of activity by organizations and nonprofits. Party sources claim these groups are directing large sums of money toward increasing turnout among voters who oppose Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. The campaign reportedly utilized social media, field events, signage, and transportation for Arab voters, as well as efforts to bring Israelis living abroad back to vote. One source labeled the effort the nonprofits affair on steroids, arguing that these groups provide a support network that operates outside standard party financing rules. The sources did not provide documentation for the funding amounts or the claim that the activity was illegal.

Likud has also criticized the Central Elections Committee. The party asserts that the committee focused heavily on enforcing limits for campaign videos and public resource use while giving insufficient attention to the work of these outside organizations.

In preparation for Election Day, Likud is organizing a major ground operation. The party is focusing on preventing right-wing votes from drifting to smaller slates, despite restrictions on obtaining information from polling stations. Likud also attempted to convince Brig. Gen. (res.) Ofer Winter, leader of the People of Israel party, to withdraw from the race. Those talks failed, and Rabbi Eli Sadan, who was involved in the discussions, later issued a statement supporting Winter.

The party is also courting backers of other right-wing lists, including the joint ticket of Yoaz Hendel and Yaron Zelekha. The Ahi party, led by Rabbi Abergel, has already withdrawn from the race following discussions with Likud. During those talks, the possibility of legislation allowing the party to name a deputy minister was raised.

The election date of October 27 allows Netanyahu's government to serve out its full term. A survey published just days before the vote found that nearly one-third of Israeli voters remained undecided.