Israel Votes in First Knesset Poll Since 2023

Israelis cast ballots on Tuesday in the first parliamentary election held since the attacks of October 7, 2023. Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu seeks to retain power against a strong challenge from Gadi Eisenkot. This contest will determine the composition of Israel's 38th government.

Polling stations opened at 7:00 a.m. local time and are scheduled to close at 10:00 p.m. A total of 36 electoral lists are competing for the 120 seats in the Knesset. The outcome will define the country's next legislative body.

Netanyahu’s current coalition, which includes right-wing, far-right, and ultra-Orthodox parties, has held office since December 2022. It is the first Israeli government since 1988 to complete a full four-year term. Recent polls indicate his bloc may fall short of the 61 seats required for a majority, with projections placing it at approximately 50 seats.

Eisenkot, a former military chief who leads the Yashar party, has emerged as the primary challenger. He aims to unseat Netanyahu, Israel's longest-serving prime minister, who has accumulated more than 19 years in office across three terms. Netanyahu served from 1996 to 1999, returned in 2009 until 2021, and began his current term in December 2022.

Current polling places Eisenkot's Yashar party ahead of Netanyahu's Likud party. Neither the opposition bloc nor the incumbent coalition is projected to win a majority on its own. This leaves both sides dependent on coalition partners to form a stable government.

Palestinian-led parties are projected to take a combined 14 to 16 seats. Both main camps have ruled out including these parties in a governing coalition. Turnout among Palestinian citizens of Israel could influence the final count, with Arab48 reporting high early turnout in Palestinian-majority towns.

Palestinian citizens constitute approximately 18 percent of eligible voters, or about 1.17 million people. Pollsters suggest turnout between 60 and 70 percent, compared with 53 percent in 2022, could help Ra'am and the Joint List secure their projected seats. Israeli television channels are expected to broadcast exit polls once voting ends. Unofficial results are anticipated overnight, with the full count due by October 30 and official results on November 4.