Rocket shortage to hit 150 launches by 2030

Quilty Space reported that the world faces a shortfall of approximately 150 rocket launches between now and 2030. The analytics firm noted that this deficit exists outside of China, driven by high demand from satellite operators and civil space agencies. If the United States military requires additional capacity and SpaceX does not extend the Falcon 9 and Falcon Heavy programs, the shortage could reach 300 launches.

Caleb Henry, director of research at Quilty Space, stated that the crisis is more severe than previously thought. He explained that the shortage will persist through the 2030s. Henry said the goal was to understand the severity and timeline for resolution, but the data shows the problem will not abate until late in the decade.

Several factors contribute to the current supply constraints. The war in Ukraine removed Russian rockets from the Western market. Developmental delays affect new vehicles including New Glenn, Vulcan, Neutron, Terran R, and Nova. Additionally, the retirement of the Falcon 9 for commercial service has reduced available options. Demand remains high from megaconstellation operators like Amazon and numerous small satellite startups.

The report indicates that the crunch will peak in 2028 before slowly improving. Supply is contracting while demand soars, creating a tight market for launch services. Operators are facing a difficult period where booking a slot is essential for timely deployment.

Henry addressed how the industry should plan around these constraints. He admitted he does not have a clear solution for those without secured spots. For operators who have not already booked a launch, Henry said they are late to the market.