Ad Spending Tops $12 Million in Final Week of Midterm House Races

Ad spending in House races has reached $12 million in two key districts in the final week before the Nov. 3 election. Campaign groups are pouring money into 70 districts where both parties are investing at least six figures each. The data suggests the core battle is now about how much control Democrats gain rather than if they take the House.

An analysis by NPR found the competitive landscape is expansive. Michigan’s 7th District and North Carolina’s 1st District are the most expensive, with over $12 million in planned spending each. Florida’s 14th, 22nd, and 25th Districts, New York’s 17th, and Iowa’s 2nd and 3rd also see heavy investment. Republicans are also buying ads in deep red communities in Tennessee, Oklahoma, and Arkansas.

The Cook Political Report rates Democrats as favored in 220 seats. It lists 17 races as toss-ups and 30 as leaning toward the GOP. This shift threatens the Republican 218-214 seat advantage from the start of the cycle. A recent NPR/PBS News/Marist poll shows Democrats hold a 10-point lead among registered voters on the generic congressional ballot.

Redistricting played a major role in scrambling the map. After a Supreme Court decision, Republicans shifted boundaries to add conservative voters to districts held by Democrats like Marcy Kaptur, Don Davis, Shomari Figures, and Darren Soto. Democrats made similar moves in California, affecting districts held by Republicans James Gallagher, David Valadao, Ken Calvert, Darrell Issa, and independent Kevin Kiley. Only Figures and Soto currently have districts rated as favoring Republicans.

Voters cite cost of living, rising gas prices, and tariffs as top concerns. A record number of congressional retirement announcements has also amplified anti-incumbency sentiment in primaries. The 70 races with heavy ad spending voted for President Trump by an average of nine points in 2024. Sixty of these districts are listed as priorities by both the Democratic and Republican House campaign arms.

Not every heavily funded race will be close. Some districts targeted by the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee gave Trump nearly 60% of the vote in 2024. These areas have seen little to no ad spending from either party in the final days. The final outcome depends on turnout and candidate performance in these specific battlegrounds.

Election Day is scheduled for Nov. 3. Early voting is already underway in many states. Campaign groups will release final spending data after polls close. The House is expected to count votes starting the night of the election.