Ad Spending Data Reveals Scale of Democratic House Gain

The final week of the 2026 midterm campaign shows a House race defined by the magnitude of a Democratic shift rather than the survival of Republican control.

An NPR analysis of advertising data indicates that both parties are deploying substantial resources in 70 districts. Each of these races has seen at least six figures in ad spending from both the Democratic and Republican sides during the final days of the election.

The Cook Political Report currently lists Democrats as favored in 220 seats. The report identifies 17 districts as toss-ups and another 30 as leaning toward the Republican Party. This distribution suggests that the Republican hold of a 218 to 214 seat advantage is likely to end on November 3.

Financial resources are concentrated in specific battlegrounds. Michigan's 7th District and North Carolina's 1st District lead the spending race, with each planning to exceed $12 million. Other high-cost areas include Florida's 14th, 22nd, and 25th Districts, as well as New York's 17th District and Iowa's 2nd and 3rd Districts.

The competitive field includes districts where voters supported different parties for president and House representative in 2024. This group includes California's 13th District, New Jersey's 9th District, Washington's 3rd District, and Nebraska's 2nd District. In all four of these areas, Republican ad reservations have dropped in recent weeks according to AdImpact data.

Redistricting has altered the map for several incumbents. Republicans redrew boundaries in Ohio, North Carolina, Alabama, and Florida to include more conservative voters. Democrats performed similar actions in California, affecting districts held by Republicans James Gallagher, David Valadao, Ken Calvert, Darrell Issa, and independent Kevin Kiley. Shomari Figures in Alabama and Darren Soto in Florida remain in districts that still favor Republicans.

The 70 districts with significant ad spending voted for Donald Trump by an average of 9 points in the 2024 election. A record number of retirement announcements and anti-incumbency sentiment in primaries have widened the number of open seats. The NPR, PBS News, and Marist poll shows Democrats holding a 10-point lead among registered voters on the generic congressional ballot.