Utah Leads Big 12 Race Into Hardest Final Stretch

Utah sits at the top of the Big 12 standings with an undefeated 7-0 record, but the path to the conference championship game is not smooth. Five weeks remain in the regular season, and the Utes must navigate the most difficult schedule among the league's primary contenders. They face road games in three of their next four contests, including a trip to Cincinnati this weekend.

The race for the two spots in the Big 12 title game remains tight. No. 8 BYU, No. 13 Texas Tech, No. 22 Arizona, and No. 24 Oklahoma State are all one conference loss behind Utah. No. 18 Houston trails by a half-game with a 3-2 record in league play. Each of these six teams has played nine conference opponents so far in the 16-team conference.

ESPN Analytics projects Utah to win all five of its remaining games. However, the difficulty of the schedule increases the pressure on coach Morgan Scalley's squad. The Utes host No. 8 BYU on Nov. 7, a matchup that could decide the conference title. They then travel to No. 22 Arizona on Nov. 14 before finishing the season at home against West Virginia.

Arizona presents a tough challenge for Utah. The Wildcats have won five straight games and have not lost since their conference opener at BYU. Arizona has three home games left in their schedule, including a mid-November showdown with the Utes. No Big 12 team has beaten the Red Raiders in Lubbock since Nov. 9, 2024, a streak Arizona aims to break when it hosts Texas Tech this weekend.

Texas Tech also faces a gauntlet of ranked opponents. The Red Raiders played only one ranked team in the first half of the season. In the final five weeks, they must host Arizona and travel to Oklahoma State. Oklahoma State is 5-2 overall and 3-1 in the conference. Their only league loss was by three points at Houston.

Oklahoma State hosts defending champion Texas Tech on Nov. 14. That game is likely to have a major impact on the conference race. The Cowboys are favored in all five of their remaining games, according to ESPN Analytics, despite playing three on the road. Their final two games are against Kansas State and Kansas.

BYU has a more favorable home schedule. The Cougars will play three of their final five games at LaVell Edwards Stadium. They are heavy favorites in those contests and in their road trip to Kansas. Their biggest remaining obstacle is the rivalry game against Utah on Nov. 7. The winner of that match is likely to secure a spot in the Big 12 championship game.

Houston has the easiest remaining schedule of the six contenders. The Cougars are on a bye this weekend. After that, they are heavy favorites to win each of their final four games against Cincinnati, Colorado, West Virginia, and Baylor. Houston has favorable tiebreakers if a three-way tie for second place emerges with a 7-2 record.

Four other teams, including Arizona State, Baylor, Cincinnati, and UCF, are 2-2 in conference play. UCF upset No. 2 BYU last weekend and has no ranked teams left on its schedule. Cincinnati has the toughest final five games in the league, including home matches against Utah and road trips to Houston and BYU. The Bearcats beat Texas Tech 37-24 last week to prove they can play spoiler.

The Big 12 championship game participants will be determined by the results of these final five weeks. Utah leads the table but faces the toughest test. The other five contenders have varying levels of difficulty in their remaining schedules, but all remain mathematically alive in the race for a conference title.